NCBA Projects 5% Economic Growth for Kenya in 2025, Calls for Balanced Policies to Bolster Resilience
From left, John Gachora, NCBA Group CEO, Economist David Ndii, Raphael Agung, NCBA Group Director, Global Markets and James Gossip, NCBA Bank Kenya Managing Director, share a light moment during a photo opportunity.
NCBA Group has forecasted a 5 percent economic growth for Kenya in 2025, citing improved private sector credit expansion, stable inflation, and increased fiscal spending as key drivers.
The projection was unveiled during the NCBA Economic Forum held at the Nairobi Serena Hotel, which convened policymakers, economists, and industry experts to explore strategies for strengthening Kenya’s economic resilience amid global uncertainty.
NCBA Group Managing Director, John Gachora, expressed optimism about Kenya’s economic outlook, emphasizing the need for prudent policy coordination and efficiency in public spending to sustain growth.
“The outlook for 2025 remains positive despite global uncertainty. Kenya must continue to pursue pragmatic fiscal and monetary policies to ensure sustainable growth. At NCBA, we remain committed to promoting informed dialogue and innovative research that supports economic transformation,” he said.
Mr. Gachora noted that the global economy is projected to expand by 3.2 percent in 2025, slightly below 2024’s 3.3 percent. He highlighted Kenya’s resilience amid tightening global financial conditions and disruptions in international trade but warned that slower growth in major economies such as the United States and Asia could impact Kenya’s exports and remittances in 2026.
The NCBA report also flagged high public debt servicing costs as a major fiscal challenge. During the first quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, the government spent KSh 509 billion on debt repayment, compared to total tax revenues of KSh 554 billion, leaving limited space for development expenditure.
Gachora stressed the need for greater efficiency in public spending to ensure better returns on investment.
Panelists at the forum observed that inflation has eased throughout 2025 but remains sensitive to food price fluctuations.
They underscored the importance of maintaining liquidity in the foreign exchange market, deepening regional trade, and strengthening Kenya’s debt management framework to sustain inclusive growth under the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA).
NCBA further projected that Kenya’s economy could grow by 5.1 percent in 2026, supported by renewed fiscal discipline, export diversification, and improved investor confidence.
Gachora urged the development of a high-frequency consumer activity index to better track household spending, which contributes over 70 percent of GDP.
He reaffirmed NCBA’s commitment to fostering research, dialogue, and innovation to shape sound economic policy and drive sustainable growth across Kenya and the region.
