New Poll Puts Babu Owino Ahead in Tight Nairobi Governor Race
A new opinion survey has placed Embakasi East Member of Parliament Paul Ongili, popularly known as Babu Owino, in the lead in the early race for the Nairobi gubernatorial seat ahead of the 2027 General Election. the is accoring to the survey by the Centre for African Progress (CAP).
Presenting the findings on Friday in Nairobi Onchari Oyieyo said the survey shows Babu Owino commanding 31 percent support among respondents, narrowly edging out businesswoman Agnes Kagure who garnered 30 percent in what analysts describe as an increasingly competitive contest for control of the capital.
“Out of 6,000 people, 31% settled on the current Member of Parliament for Embakasi, that is Babu Owino. 30% settled on Kagure.”
According to the findings, former Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru trails the two front-runners with 24 percent support, while incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja records just 5 percent. Other potential contenders, including Embakasi North MP James Gakuya, Irungu Nyakera and Kasarani MP Ronald Karauri, each registered minimal support ranging between one and three percent.
The poll surveyed 6,000 respondents across Nairobi County between February 25 and March 1 using targeted random sampling. Researchers said the sample size was designed to reflect the distribution of the county’s more than 2.4 million registered voters across its 17 constituencies and 85 wards.
The survey results also highlight growing dissatisfaction with the current county leadership. Only 8 percent of respondents said they approve of the job being done by Governor Sakaja, while a significant 82 percent expressed disapproval. Ten percent of those interviewed said they had no opinion.
Researchers attributed the discontent to growing concerns about governance and accountability in the county administration.
“Nairobi has been unfortunate enough to have more governors than the number of election cycles because of impeachment,” Onchari noted, referring to the turbulent leadership history of the county since the advent of devolution.
Onchari noted that the findings signal early political shifts that could shape the dynamics of the 2027 elections in Nairobi, particularly as parties begin positioning their candidates.
“The 2027 election will be contested on a variety of fronts including the economy, security of the citizens of Nairobi and the strength of the contenders,” Onchari
The study also indicates that the political landscape remains fluid, especially within opposition formations that have yet to settle on a unified candidate.
CAP analysts observed that the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) could face a complex decision regarding its ticket, with speculation already emerging around potential alternatives to the current governor.
The poll further outlines demographic trends among respondents. Women made up 51 percent of the sample compared to 49 percent men. In terms of age distribution, the largest group of respondents fell between 29 and 38 years at 34 percent, followed by those aged 39 to 48 years at 28 percent.
Education levels among respondents also varied, with 52 percent indicating college-level education, 34 percent secondary education and 14 percent primary-level education.
While analysts caution that the race remains in its early stages with nearly two years to the elections, the survey provides one of the first structured indicators of voter sentiment in Nairobi as political alignments begin to take shape.
The report concludes that the evolving dynamics among major political players will likely play a decisive role in determining the final shape of the Nairobi gubernatorial contest.
