New Study Says Stronger Coffee Certification Could Triple Kenya’s Export Earnings
Kenya could earn more than Sh116 billion annually from coffee exports by 2030 if it strengthens coffee certification systems, adopts better quality management practices and invests in farmer training, a new study has found.
The doctoral research conducted at Kenyatta University says improving certification programmes across the coffee value chain could significantly increase production, expand access to premium international markets and create hundreds of thousands of jobs, particularly for young people.
Lead researcher Dr. Martin Ambrose Mutua said certification should go beyond meeting market requirements and become a strategic tool for improving productivity, sustainability and farmer incomes.
“Quality management is the cornerstone of successful coffee certification. Farmers who adopted structured quality systems, including compliance checks, standardised production processes and buyer feedback, recorded better coffee quality, reduced wastage and gained access to premium export markets,” said Dr. Mutua.
The study examined three coffee certification projects in Kiambu County involving 300 respondents and found that quality management, sustainability compliance, farmer capacity building and access to reliable market platforms were the four critical factors determining the success of certification programmes.
According to the findings, farmers who embraced sustainable farming practices such as soil conservation, water management and biodiversity protection recorded more stable yields while improving compliance with international certification standards.
The research also found that continuous farmer training played a significant role in increasing productivity and helping cooperatives maintain certification requirements.
One of the examples cited in the study is Baragwi Farmers Cooperative Society, where the adoption of Rainforest Alliance certification and structured farmer training helped increase coffee production from 5,000 tonnes to 15,000 tonnes while membership more than doubled from 11,000 to 25,000 farmers.
Dr. Mutua noted that certification alone is not enough if farmers cannot access profitable markets.
He said digital market platforms, premium pricing systems and stronger buyer linkages are essential in enabling certified farmers to translate compliance into higher incomes.
“Without functional market platforms, certification cannot deliver its full economic value because farmers struggle to convert quality improvements into better prices,” he said.
Kenya currently produces about 50,000 tonnes of green coffee annually, well below the government’s target of 200,000 tonnes by 2030 under the National Coffee Value Chain Development Strategy.
The study argues that increasing certified coffee production to 150,000 tonnes while maintaining premium prices could raise export earnings to approximately Sh116 billion annually, positioning coffee among Kenya’s leading foreign exchange earners alongside tea and horticulture.
Beyond increasing export revenues, the research projects that expanding certified coffee production could support more than three million livelihoods while creating over 500,000 new jobs in processing, logistics, cooperative management and certification compliance.
To achieve these gains, the study recommends institutionalising quality management across all certification programmes, making farmer training a mandatory component of certification, strengthening sustainability regulations and investing in digital coffee marketing infrastructure.
It also calls for stronger collaboration between government agencies, cooperatives, certification bodies and private sector players to improve market access and ensure Kenyan coffee remains competitive in the global market.
Dr. Mutua said implementing the proposed reforms would not only increase production and exports but also restore Kenya’s position as one of the world’s leading producers of high-quality coffee.
